---
title: Phillips 66 (PSX) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/psx
ticker: PSX
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Energy
industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
---
# Phillips 66 (PSX)

Phillips 66 (PSX) closed at $293.17 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 154% vs its model value of $115.26 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $293.17 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $115.26 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 154% vs model |
| Range of that model | $51.19 – $349.28 |
| Market value | $117.5B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 27.2 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 3.3% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | — |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.71% |
| Beta | 0.70 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.77% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-5% recent), Thin margins (3.3% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Near 52-week highs | #40 | −1.4% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-highs |
| Best performing this year | #12 | +127.2% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.71% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $5.01 |
| Coverage | — |
| Raised | 4 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 7.2% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.27, ex-date Aug 18, 2026, paid Sep 1, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 17, 2021 | $3.54 |
| To Aug 17, 2022 | $3.78 |
| To Aug 17, 2023 | $4.12 |
| To Aug 20, 2024 | $4.40 |
| To Aug 19, 2025 | $4.70 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 18, 2026) | $5.01 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $115.26 | $51.19 | $349.28 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $128.72 | $65.16 | $355.12 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $128.79 | $24.67 | $252.79 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $122.54 | $39.76 | $236.34 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $148.21 | $112.59 | $159.88 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $343.89 | $176.19 | $555.41 |
| PEG | sanity check | $779.99 | $779.99 | $779.99 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $112.24 | $90.94 | $166.78 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $39.38 | $26.09 | $58.16 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $78.64 | $58.54 | $108.35 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $73.89 | $55.40 | $122.02 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 14 open-market sales ($7.5B); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Mandell Brian | Executive Vice President | Option/RSU exercise | 23,400 | $1.7M |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Mandell Brian | Executive Vice President | Open-market sell | 23,400 | $6.2M |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Mandell Brian | Executive Vice President | Option/RSU exercise | 23,400 | $0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Kluppel Ann M | SVP & Controller | Bona fide gift | 40 | $0 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Harbison Richard G | EVP, Refining | Option/RSU exercise | 13,500 | $1.0M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000119312526413219/d76010d8k.htm |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000119312526361266/d131307d8k.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000032/psx-20260630.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000030/psx-20260805.htm |
| May 14, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000119312526224232/d80109d8k.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 1,757,891 | $297.2M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 125,491 | $21.2M |
| Torray | 2026-06-30 | 117,795 | $19.9M |
| Tweedy Browne | 2026-06-30 | 12,282 | $2.1M |

7 tracked managers in all.

## About

Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S). The Midstream division manages the vital infrastructure for transporting and processing various energy commodities. This includes moving crude oil and other feedstocks, delivering refined petroleum products to market, offering terminaling and storage solutions, and handling natural gas liquids (NGLs) through processes like transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing. It also provides fee-based processing services and oversees the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The Chemicals segment is dedicated to the production and distribution of a broad spectrum of chemical products. This encompasses ol…

---

Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/psx (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.