--- title: Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/pkg ticker: PKG as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Consumer Cyclical industry: Packaging & Containers --- # Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) closed at $236.00 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 37% vs its model value of $172.82 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $236.00 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $172.82 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 37% vs model | | Range of that model | $100.86 – $428.49 | | Market value | $21.0B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 27.5 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 8.6% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $728.6M | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.33% | | Beta | 0.77 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.84% | | Business classification | Cyclical (Low/slowing growth (~7% recent), Moderate margins (9% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 2.33% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $5.50 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 61.7% | | Raised | — | | Growth over 5 years | 6.6% a year | | Latest payment | $1.50, ex-date Sep 15, 2026, paid Oct 15, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Sep 14, 2021 | $4.00 | | To Sep 30, 2022 | $4.50 | | To Sep 22, 2023 | $5.00 | | To Sep 16, 2024 | $5.00 | | To Sep 15, 2025 | $5.00 | | Trailing twelve months (to Sep 15, 2026) | $5.50 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $172.82 | $100.86 | $428.49 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $189.12 | $114.55 | $450.31 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $190.45 | $96.44 | $301.97 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $203.27 | $110.65 | $329.43 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $109.45 | $96.58 | $132.35 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $204.72 | $144.83 | $236.81 | | PEG | sanity check | $210.13 | $210.13 | $210.13 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $155.65 | $151.18 | $164.30 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $72.26 | $53.94 | $94.46 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $81.19 | $61.99 | $109.48 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $127.72 | $87.68 | $209.39 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 4 open-market sales ($10.2M); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Aug 20, 2026 | Shirley Donald R. | Exec. VP | Open-market sell | 12,000 | $3.0M | | Aug 7, 2026 | Hassfurther Thomas A | President | Open-market sell | 7,063 | $1.8M | | Aug 3, 2026 | Hassfurther Thomas A | President | Open-market sell | 12,531 | $3.1M | | Aug 5, 2026 | Hassfurther Thomas A | President | Open-market sell | 8,797 | $2.3M | | May 27, 2026 | KOWLZAN MARK W | Chairman & CEO | Open-market sell | 9,266 | $2.0M | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Aug 7, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526339405/pkg-20260630.htm | | Jul 23, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526312651/pkg-20260722.htm | | May 13, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526221672/d148522d8k.htm | | May 8, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526213675/pkg-20260331.htm | | Apr 23, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526171009/pkg-20260422.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Harry Burn | 2026-06-30 | 61,025 | $14.5M | 1 tracked managers in all. ## About Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging. This segment also provides specialized packaging for perishable goods like meat and fresh produce, processed foods, beverages, and a broad spectrum of other industrial and consumer products. Its corrugated offerings reach customers through a multi-channel approach, utilizing a dedicated direct sales an… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/pkg (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.