---
title: Progressive (PGR) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/pgr
ticker: PGR
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Financial Services
industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
---
# Progressive (PGR)

Progressive (PGR) closed at $218.49 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 11% vs its model value of $246.49 (from the justified price to book).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $218.49 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from the justified price to book) | $246.49 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 11% vs model |
| Range of that model | $215.68 – $287.57 |
| Market value | $127.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 11.4 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $17.2B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 6.36% |
| Beta | 0.24 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.95% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Moderate growth (~19% recent), Moderate margins (13% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (13.5%)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Highest dividend yield | #8 | 6.36% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-dividend-yield |
| Lowest P/E | #29 | 11.4× | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/lowest-pe |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 6.36% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $13.90 |
| Dividends / earnings (fiscal 2025) | 25.4% |
| Raised | — |
| Growth over 5 years | 50.5% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.10, ex-date Oct 1, 2026, paid Oct 9, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Dec 17, 2021 | $1.80 |
| To Oct 6, 2022 | $0.40 |
| To Oct 4, 2023 | $0.40 |
| To Oct 3, 2024 | $1.15 |
| To Oct 2, 2025 | $4.90 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Oct 1, 2026) | $13.90 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| P/B · justified | primary | $246.49 | $215.68 | $287.57 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $209.86 | $193.58 | $314.47 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $386.91 | $312.45 | $707.39 |
| PEG | sanity check | $146.63 | $146.63 | $146.63 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $112.81 | $72.07 | $218.58 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 9 open-market sales ($23.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Snyder Barbara R | Director | Grant / award | 9.876 | $0 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | FITT LAWTON W | Director | Grant / award | 66.777 | $0 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | FARAH ROGER N | Director | Grant / award | 71.2 | $0 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | DAVIS CHARLES A | Director | Grant / award | 2.306 | $0 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | DAVIS CHARLES A | Director | Grant / award | 10.025 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000367/pgr-20261014.htm |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000322/pgr-20260918.htm |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000315/pgr-20260819.htm |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000310/pgr-20260807.htm |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000308/pgr-20260630.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 753,750 | $164.7M |
| Francois Rochon | 2026-06-30 | 542,292 | $118.5M |
| David Rolfe | 2026-06-30 | 106,261 | $23.2M |
| Bruce Berkowitz | 2026-06-30 | 72,200 | $15.8M |

8 tracked managers in all.

## About

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business ve…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/pgr (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.