---
title: Old Dominion (ODFL) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/odfl
ticker: ODFL
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Trucking
---
# Old Dominion (ODFL)

Old Dominion (ODFL) closed at $187.72 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 135% vs its model value of $79.72 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $187.72 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $79.72 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 135% vs model |
| Range of that model | $58.93 – $129.28 |
| Market value | $39.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 38.8 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 18.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $955.1M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.61% |
| Beta | 1.20 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.79% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-3% recent), Moderate margins (19% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 0.61% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $1.15 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 24.7% |
| Raised | 8+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 25.1% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.29, ex-date Sep 2, 2026, paid Sep 16, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 31, 2021 | $0.38 |
| To Sep 6, 2022 | $0.55 |
| To Sep 5, 2023 | $0.75 |
| To Sep 4, 2024 | $0.98 |
| To Sep 3, 2025 | $1.10 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Sep 2, 2026) | $1.15 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $79.72 | $58.93 | $129.28 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $92.47 | $68.93 | $147.67 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $120.83 | $80.76 | $168.08 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $125.85 | $84.97 | $180.71 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $154.07 | $139.51 | $202.36 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $177.05 | $157.79 | $197.11 |
| PEG | sanity check | $89.97 | $89.97 | $89.97 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $134.78 | $119.10 | $161.80 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $43.47 | $39.15 | $65.26 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $33.09 | $28.75 | $39.01 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $26.28 | $18.81 | $36.78 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 1 open-market sale ($4.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 22, 2026 | JACKMAN WORTHING | Director | Grant / award | 545 | $0 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Overbey Cecil E. Jr. | SVP - Strategic Development | Open-market sell | 19,952 | $4.0M |
| May 27, 2026 | CONGDON DAVID S | Executive Chairman | Bona fide gift | 295,670 | $0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Davis Andrew Stephen | Director | Grant / award | 859 | $0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Stith Thomas A. III | Director | Grant / award | 859 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000027/odfl-20260922.htm |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000025/odfl-20260903.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000023/odfl-20260630.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000021/odfl-20260729.htm |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000019/odfl-20260723.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 429,150 | $93.0M |
| David Rolfe | 2026-06-30 | 110,288 | $23.9M |
| First Eagle | 2026-06-30 | 95 | $20,577 |

3 tracked managers in all.

## About

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and national levels, often featuring expedited delivery options. Furthermore, ODFL provides a variety of supplementary services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consultancy. As of December 31, 2021, its extensive infrastructure comprised 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers, supported by 3 fleet maintenance centers and 251 service facilities. Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Thomasville, North Carolina.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/odfl (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.