---
title: Norfolk Southern (NSC) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/nsc
ticker: NSC
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Railroads
---
# Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Norfolk Southern (NSC) closed at $326.92 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 54% vs its model value of $212.84 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $326.92 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $212.84 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 54% vs model |
| Range of that model | $126.14 – $478.71 |
| Market value | $73.4B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 25.6 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 23.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.2B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.65% |
| Beta | 1.28 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.88% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~0% recent), High profitability (24% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.65% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $5.40 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 56.3% |
| Raised | — |
| Growth over 5 years | 6.1% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.35, ex-date Aug 7, 2026, paid Aug 20, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 6, 2021 | $4.01 |
| To Aug 5, 2022 | $4.81 |
| To Aug 3, 2023 | $5.29 |
| To Aug 2, 2024 | $5.40 |
| To Aug 1, 2025 | $5.40 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 7, 2026) | $5.40 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $212.84 | $126.14 | $478.71 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $225.47 | $139.86 | $483.13 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $369.47 | $246.82 | $513.78 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $348.59 | $226.62 | $511.05 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $297.15 | $284.43 | $357.42 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $290.68 | $242.38 | $342.89 |
| PEG | sanity check | $129.92 | $129.92 | $129.92 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $344.39 | $320.55 | $383.32 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $335.41 | $308.82 | $375.61 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $39.09 | $23.46 | $61.08 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $101.78 | $72.53 | $156.15 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Huffard John C Jr | Director | Will / inheritance | 333.33 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Huffard John C Jr | Director | Grant / award | 171.521 | $53,000 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | ANDERSON RICHARD H | Director | Grant / award | 177.994 | $55,000 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | George Mark R | President & CEO | Option/RSU exercise | 2,653 | $0 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | George Mark R | President & CEO | Tax withholding | 1,035 | $334,615.5 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/702165/000162828026049326/nsc-20260630.htm |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/702165/000119312526313393/nsc-20260723.htm |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/702165/000119312526250020/d91653d8k.htm |
| May 8, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/702165/000119312526214920/nsc-20260508.htm |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/702165/000162828026027051/nsc-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 2,508,128 | $789.0M |
| Loeb | 2026-06-30 | 600,000 | $188.8M |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 282,500 | $88.9M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 2,590 | $814,788 |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), operating through its various subsidiaries, is a prominent rail transport provider in the United States. The company's core business involves the conveyance of raw materials, semi-finished goods, and completed merchandise across the nation. Its extensive freight services cover a broad spectrum of commodities. This includes a variety of agricultural and forestry products like grains (e.g., soybeans, wheat, corn), fertilizers, animal feeds, and diverse foodstuffs such as oils, flour, sweeteners, beverages, and canned goods, alongside lumber and paper products. NSC also handles a wide range of chemicals, from sulfur and petroleum derivatives to chlorine compounds, plastics, industrial chemicals, and sand. Furthermore, the company moves metals and construction supplies, including steel, aluminum, heavy machinery, cement, aggregates, and specialized militar…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/nsc (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.