---
title: NRG Energy (NRG) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/nrg
ticker: NRG
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Utilities
industry: Independent Power Producers
---
# NRG Energy (NRG)

NRG Energy (NRG) closed at $103.75 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 45% vs its model value of $188.36 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $103.75 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $188.36 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 45% vs model |
| Range of that model | $98.90 – $594.41 |
| Market value | $21.8B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 25.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 2.8% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $766.0M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.80% |
| Beta | 1.16 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.18% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Low/slowing growth (~4% recent), Decelerated from ~28% 5y CAGR, Thin margins (2.8% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 9.8x)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Worst performing this year | #22 | −34.8% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/worst-performing-this-year |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.80% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $1.87 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 53.7% |
| Raised | 6 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 7.9% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.475, ex-date Aug 3, 2026, paid Aug 17, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Jul 30, 2021 | $1.28 |
| To Jul 29, 2022 | $1.38 |
| To Jul 31, 2023 | $1.48 |
| To Aug 1, 2024 | $1.60 |
| To Aug 1, 2025 | $1.73 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 3, 2026) | $1.87 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $188.36 | $98.90 | $594.41 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $183.56 | $101.40 | $549.64 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $249.48 | $169.69 | $343.39 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $233.92 | $153.26 | $341.17 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $159.01 | $54.34 | $222.56 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $108.39 | $38.45 | $201.04 |
| PEG | sanity check | $222.24 | $222.24 | $222.24 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $199.41 | $172.57 | $446.57 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $483.40 | $66.43 | $530.25 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $38.68 | $27.61 | $58.98 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 1 open-market sale ($191,069.4); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Spencer Gerald Alfred | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 1,580 | $191,069.4 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Donohue Elisabeth B | Director | Grant / award | 81 | $0 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cox Heather | Director | Grant / award | 68 | $0 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Carrillo Antonio | Director | Grant / award | 65 | $0 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Carter Matthew Jr | Director | Grant / award | 149 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000020/nrg-20260630.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000018/nrg-20260804.htm |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000110465926083743/tm2620335d1_8k.htm |
| May 21, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000110465926064884/tm2615243d1_8k.htm |
| May 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000012/nrg-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Tepper | 2026-06-30 | 1,760,000 | $257.1M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 277,935 | $40.6M |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale sectors. Their energy generation capabilities are diverse, drawing from natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage technologies. Beyond core power provision, NRG offers an extensive array of solutions, including centralized system power, decentralized generation, renewable energy products, emergency backup power, distributed solar and storage installations, demand-side management, energy efficiency programs, expert advisory services, carbon man…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/nrg (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.