---
title: Northrop Grumman (NOC) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/noc
ticker: NOC
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Aerospace & Defense
---
# Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Northrop Grumman (NOC) closed at $519.86 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 41% vs its model value of $879.58 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $519.86 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $879.58 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 41% vs model |
| Range of that model | $418.18 – $1,436.17 |
| Market value | $73.9B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 17.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 10.0% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $3.3B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.84% |
| Beta | -0.11 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 5.96% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~3% recent), Moderate margins (10% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.84% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $9.56 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 39.1% |
| Raised | 22 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 9.6% a year |
| Latest payment | $2.47, ex-date Aug 31, 2026, paid Sep 16, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 27, 2021 | $6.04 |
| To Aug 26, 2022 | $6.60 |
| To Aug 25, 2023 | $7.20 |
| To Sep 3, 2024 | $7.86 |
| To Sep 2, 2025 | $8.74 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 31, 2026) | $9.56 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $879.58 | $418.18 | $1,436.17 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $940.76 | $464.35 | $1,605.86 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $731.71 | $513.46 | $989.23 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $795.63 | $540.35 | $1,137.11 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $685.78 | $534.85 | $994.52 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $513.35 | $407.65 | $659.24 |
| PEG | sanity check | $231.42 | $231.42 | $231.42 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $588.58 | $504.04 | $1,154.14 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $469.87 | $330.82 | $523.78 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $352.14 | $265.52 | $497.03 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $349.40 | $198.95 | $547.47 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 10 open-market sales ($52,014.9); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 30, 2026 | KRISHNA ARVIND | Director | Grant / award | 75 | $36,261 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Brown Marianne Catherine | Director | Grant / award | 96 | $46,414.1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Warden Kathy J | Chair, CEO and President | Grant / award | 35,910 | $0 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | WELSH MARK A III | Director | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 8 | $4,356.2 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | WELSH MARK A III | Director | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 19 | $10,366.2 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133421/000162828026058480/noc-20260819.htm |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133421/000113342126000034/noc-20260630.htm |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133421/000113342126000033/noc-20260721.htm |
| May 21, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133421/000162828026037375/noc-20260520.htm |
| May 13, 2026 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy materials | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133421/000113342126000019/a2026defa14a051326.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Yacktman | 2026-06-30 | 197,521 | $100.6M |
| Soros | 2026-06-30 | 9,660 | $4.9M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 3,091 | $1.6M |
| Torray | 2026-06-30 | 887 | $451,758 |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

Northrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors. Its Aeronautics Systems division is responsible for the full lifecycle of aircraft, from design and development to production, integration, and ongoing maintenance. This includes a diverse portfolio of crewed and uncrewed aerial platforms: advanced strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air superiority jets, and sophisticated airborne systems for battle management and command and control. Additionally, it specializes in autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems, such as high-altitude, long-endurance strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, alongside vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems. The Defense Systems segment focuses on creating and delivering a wide array of weapons and mission technologies. Its offerings encompass integrated ba…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/noc (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.