---
title: Netflix (NFLX) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/nflx
ticker: NFLX
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Communication Services
industry: Entertainment
---
# Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix (NFLX) closed at $70.53 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 39% vs its model value of $50.67 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $70.53 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $50.67 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 39% vs model |
| Range of that model | $36.60 – $84.96 |
| Market value | $293.7B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 27.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 24.3% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $9.5B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.61 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 10.63% |
| Business classification | Profitable Growth (Moderate growth (~16% recent), High profitability (24% net margin), Moderately volatile earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Largest companies | #39 | $293.7B | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/largest-companies |
| Near 52-week lows | #31 | +5.2% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-lows |
| Worst performing this year | #49 | −24.8% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/worst-performing-this-year |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $50.67 | $36.60 | $84.96 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $55.20 | $40.69 | $89.85 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $56.27 | $40.24 | $75.09 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $59.63 | $43.33 | $81.20 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $52.36 | $34.71 | $113.97 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $131.87 | $98.58 | $168.60 |
| PEG | sanity check | $73.16 | $73.16 | $73.16 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $41.57 | $23.17 | $93.94 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $29.95 | $19.66 | $83.42 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $10.97 | $9.46 | $12.98 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 6 open-market sales ($3.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Hoag Jay C | Director | Grant / award | 921 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Mertz Elinor | Director | Grant / award | 922 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | RICE SUSAN E | Director | Grant / award | 921 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | BARTON RICHARD N | Director | Grant / award | 921 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | MATHER ANN | Director | Grant / award | 921 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000214/nflx-20260726.htm |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000119312526312575/d171951d8k.htm |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000119312526310568/d171956d424b5.htm |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000212/nflx-20260630.htm |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000211/nflx-20260716.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Ackman | 2026-06-30 | 13,081,465 | $934.0M |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 11,014,943 | $786.5M |
| Terry Smith | 2026-06-30 | 6,990,345 | $499.1M |
| Thomas Russo | 2026-06-30 | 5,710,088 | $407.7M |

12 tracked managers in all.

## About

Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/nflx (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.