---
title: Moderna (MRNA) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mrna
ticker: MRNA
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Healthcare
industry: Biotechnology
---
# Moderna (MRNA)

Moderna (MRNA) closed at $218.01 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 1180% vs its model value of $17.03 (from its peers' median EV/Revenue).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $218.01 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from its peers' median EV/Revenue) | $17.03 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 1180% vs model |
| Range of that model | $16.43 – $40.66 |
| Market value | $87.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | — |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | -145.2% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | -$2.1B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.90 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.92% |
| Business classification | Loss-Making (Revenue declining (~-47% recent), Currently unprofitable, Highly cyclical earnings, Negative free cash flow) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Best performing this year | #1 | +639.3% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $17.03 | $16.43 | $40.66 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 8 open-market sales ($33.9M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Option/RSU exercise (10b5-1 plan) | 76,453 | $933,491.1 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 38,774 | $8.3M |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 450 | $96,367.5 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Option/RSU exercise (10b5-1 plan) | 76,452 | $933,478.9 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 39,145 | $8.6M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000119312526408289/d18337d8k.htm |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 3.02 Unregistered Sale of Equity; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000119312526378505/d108896d8k.htm |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000150/mrna-20260630.htm |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000147/mrna-20260731.htm |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000134/mrna-20260706.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 11,527 | $807,236 |

1 tracked managers in all.

## About

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah. Additionally, Moderna is advancing systemic…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mrna (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.