---
title: Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mpc
ticker: MPC
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Energy
industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
---
# Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed at $478.07 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 8% vs its model value of $444.14 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $478.07 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $444.14 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 8% vs model |
| Range of that model | $252.89 – $1,292.94 |
| Market value | $134.3B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 36.2 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 3.0% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $4.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.84% |
| Beta | 0.54 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.23% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-5% recent), Thin margins (3.0% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Near 52-week highs | #41 | −1.4% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-highs |
| Best performing this year | #5 | +194.0% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 0.84% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $4.00 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 23.9% |
| Raised | 4 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 11.5% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.00, ex-date Aug 19, 2026, paid Sep 10, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 17, 2021 | $2.32 |
| To Aug 16, 2022 | $2.32 |
| To Aug 15, 2023 | $3.00 |
| To Aug 21, 2024 | $3.30 |
| To Aug 20, 2025 | $3.64 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 19, 2026) | $4.00 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $444.14 | $252.89 | $1,292.94 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $357.63 | $215.42 | $971.66 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $198.48 | $68.36 | $353.32 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $207.71 | $112.03 | $337.97 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $166.98 | $138.00 | $1,246.14 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $281.25 | $211.16 | $622.88 |
| PEG | sanity check | $513.32 | $513.32 | $513.32 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $124.75 | $122.93 | $153.25 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $8.47 | $0.37 | $43.24 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $95.19 | $62.44 | $145.09 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $62.69 | $46.05 | $108.10 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 8 open-market sales ($9.8M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | Open-market sell | 425 | $156,616.8 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | Open-market sell | 1,000 | $375,750 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Brzezinski Erin M | VP and Controller | Open-market sell | 570 | $206,790.3 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Option/RSU exercise (10b5-1 plan) | 7,196 | $343,465.1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 7,196 | $2.6M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000061/mpc-20260630.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000060/mpc-20260804.htm |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000055/mpc-20260626.htm |
| May 6, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000046/mpcs-3asrshelf2026.htm |
| May 5, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000042/mpc-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 349,224 | $89.3M |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 229,011 | $58.6M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 1,390 | $355,381 |
| David Katz | 2026-09-30 | 854 | $337,689 |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined goods through multiple channels, including wholesale marketers domestically…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mpc (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.