---
title: Mosaic (MOS) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mos
ticker: MOS
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Basic Materials
industry: Agricultural Inputs
---
# Mosaic (MOS)

Mosaic (MOS) closed at $18.82 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 67% vs its model value of $56.34 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $18.82 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $56.34 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 67% vs model |
| Range of that model | $25.95 – $147.32 |
| Market value | $6.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 11.1 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 4.5% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | -$534.6M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 4.68% |
| Beta | 0.83 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.03% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-6% recent), Thin margins (4.5% net margin), Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings, Negative free cash flow) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Highest dividend yield | #35 | 4.68% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-dividend-yield |
| Lowest P/E | #24 | 11.1× | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/lowest-pe |
| Near 52-week lows | #3 | +0.4% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-lows |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 4.68% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $0.88 |
| Coverage | — |
| Raised | 7 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 26.2% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.22, ex-date Sep 10, 2026, paid Sep 24, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Dec 1, 2021 | $0.28 |
| To Nov 30, 2022 | $0.56 |
| To Sep 6, 2023 | $0.85 |
| To Sep 5, 2024 | $0.83 |
| To Sep 8, 2025 | $0.87 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Sep 10, 2026) | $0.88 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $56.34 | $25.95 | $147.32 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $53.84 | $25.98 | $140.77 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $39.47 | $12.36 | $71.82 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $41.83 | $16.52 | $76.85 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $14.05 | $10.83 | $23.60 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $12.61 | $8.01 | $18.40 |
| PEG | sanity check | $5.31 | $5.31 | $5.31 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $16.28 | $7.50 | $40.52 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $32.65 | $4.63 | $56.48 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $7.04 | $2.65 | $14.33 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $24.26 | $16.74 | $36.23 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 1 open-market sale ($508,760); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Little Sonya C | Director | Grant / award | 65 | $1,607.5 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Precourt Walter F. III | SVP - Chief Admin Officer | Open-market sell | 23,000 | $508,760 |
| May 28, 2026 | Kuzenko Jody Lynne | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 4,873 | $0 |
| May 28, 2026 | Kuzenko Jody Lynne | Director | Grant / award | 7,273 | $0 |
| May 28, 2026 | Kuzenko Jody Lynne | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 4,873 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000125/formxchangeofofficerssepte.htm |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 8-K | 2.04 Triggering Event Accelerating an Obligation | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000122/a8-kxredemptionmakewhole8xk.htm |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 8-K | 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000119312526354095/d168739d8k.htm |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000119312526353193/d172855d8k.htm |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000119312526352365/d178370d8k.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| John Rogers | 2026-06-30 | 123,607 | $2.6M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 16,000 | $339,040 |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product. Beyond phosphates, Mosaic is a key producer and vendor of potash. This versatile mineral…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mos (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.