---
title: McDonald's (MCD) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mcd
ticker: MCD
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Restaurants
---
# McDonald's (MCD)

McDonald's (MCD) closed at $242.97 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 2% vs its model value of $248.35 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $242.97 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $248.35 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 2% vs model |
| Range of that model | $134.90 – $613.79 |
| Market value | $171.9B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 20.3 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 31.9% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $7.2B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 3.06% |
| Beta | 0.45 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.98% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Low/slowing growth (~3% recent), High profitability (32% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 5.0x)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Near 52-week lows | #33 | +5.2% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-lows |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 3.06% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $7.44 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 71.2% |
| Raised | 17 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 7.6% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.86, ex-date Sep 1, 2026, paid Sep 16, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 31, 2021 | $5.16 |
| To Aug 31, 2022 | $5.52 |
| To Aug 31, 2023 | $6.08 |
| To Sep 3, 2024 | $6.68 |
| To Sep 2, 2025 | $7.08 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Sep 1, 2026) | $7.44 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $248.35 | $134.90 | $613.79 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $242.73 | $138.02 | $583.72 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $267.57 | $180.40 | $370.31 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $259.23 | $171.40 | $376.34 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $300.20 | $260.11 | $428.59 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $323.88 | $306.98 | $347.61 |
| PEG | sanity check | $126.66 | $126.66 | $126.66 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $223.49 | $204.99 | $247.30 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $47.34 | $12.68 | $61.08 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $80.68 | $56.36 | $118.31 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $171.79 | $113.37 | $307.02 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Dean Lloyd H | Director | Grant / award | 156.97 | $36,250.7 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Taubert Jennifer L | Director | Grant / award | 129.9 | $29,999.1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Hsu Michael D. | Director | Grant / award | 129.9 | $29,999.1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Elting Lauren B | VP - CAO and Corp Controller | Tax withholding | 304 | $83,441.9 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Elting Lauren B | VP - CAO and Corp Controller | Option/RSU exercise | 990 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000076/mcd-20260923.htm |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000073/mcd-20260630.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000069/mcd-20260803.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000067/mcd-20260804.htm |
| May 22, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000055/mcd-20260520.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Viking Global | 2026-06-30 | 2,829,158 | $764.7M |
| Gates | 2026-06-30 | 334,900 | $90.5M |
| Jensen | 2026-06-30 | 225,570 | $61.0M |
| Soros | 2026-06-30 | 123,562 | $33.4M |

9 tracked managers in all.

## About

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office l…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/mcd (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.