---
title: Eli Lilly (LLY) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/lly
ticker: LLY
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Healthcare
industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
---
# Eli Lilly (LLY)

Eli Lilly (LLY) closed at $1,257.03 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 22% vs its model value of $1,030.95 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $1,257.03 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $1,030.95 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 22% vs model |
| Range of that model | $555.08 – $2,418.44 |
| Market value | $1.2T |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 54.8 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 31.7% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $9.0B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.53% |
| Beta | 0.45 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.59% |
| Business classification | High Growth (High revenue growth (~38% recent), High profitability (32% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Largest companies | #10 | $1.2T | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/largest-companies |
| Near 52-week highs | #47 | −1.8% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-highs |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 0.53% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $6.69 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 60.0% |
| Raised | 11 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 15.3% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.73, ex-date Aug 14, 2026, paid Sep 10, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 12, 2021 | $3.29 |
| To Aug 12, 2022 | $3.79 |
| To Aug 14, 2023 | $4.37 |
| To Aug 15, 2024 | $5.03 |
| To Aug 15, 2025 | $5.80 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 14, 2026) | $6.69 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $1,030.95 | $555.08 | $2,418.44 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $1,135.09 | $628.87 | $2,676.43 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $897.95 | $631.18 | $1,212.36 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $1,001.47 | $688.67 | $1,419.16 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $664.49 | $587.38 | $1,303.87 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $1,812.55 | $1,429.06 | $2,473.04 |
| PEG | sanity check | $858.60 | $858.60 | $858.60 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $565.38 | $504.09 | $753.15 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $532.08 | $445.96 | $651.41 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $113.36 | $88.19 | $150.94 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 3 open-market sales ($16.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | Director | Grant / award | 4.257 | $4,958.4 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | LUCIANO JUAN R | Director | Grant / award | 13.664 | $15,916.7 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Fyrwald J Erik | Director | Grant / award | 8.513 | $9,916.7 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Alvarez Ralph | Director | Grant / award | 10.659 | $12,416.7 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Seymour Melissa | EVP, Global Quality | Bona fide gift | 17 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000081/lly-20260630.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000077/lly-20260805.htm |
| May 20, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000119312526232707/d148580d8k.htm |
| May 7, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000048/lly-20260504.htm |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000045/lly-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Polen Capital | 2026-06-30 | 666,912 | $799.9M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 322,129 | $386.4M |
| Jensen | 2026-06-30 | 153,735 | $184.4M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 87,023 | $104.4M |

10 tracked managers in all.

## About

Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorect…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/lly (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.