---
title: Johnson Controls (JCI) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/jci
ticker: JCI
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Basic Materials
industry: Construction Materials
---
# Johnson Controls (JCI)

Johnson Controls (JCI) closed at $145.47 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 175% vs its model value of $52.93 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $145.47 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $52.93 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 175% vs model |
| Range of that model | $33.12 – $106.94 |
| Market value | $88.1B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 28.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 13.9% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.1B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.10% |
| Beta | 1.28 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.45% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Revenue declining (~-6% recent), Moderate margins (14% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.10% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $1.60 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 46.0% |
| Raised | 5 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 8.4% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.40, ex-date Sep 21, 2026, paid Oct 16, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Sep 24, 2021 | $1.07 |
| To Sep 23, 2022 | $1.39 |
| To Sep 22, 2023 | $1.45 |
| To Sep 25, 2024 | $1.48 |
| To Sep 22, 2025 | $1.51 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Sep 21, 2026) | $1.60 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $52.93 | $33.12 | $106.94 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $59.80 | $38.82 | $116.10 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $76.04 | $52.84 | $103.28 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $79.06 | $53.86 | $112.37 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $135.83 | $120.63 | $165.01 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $141.47 | $122.61 | $156.72 |
| PEG | sanity check | $71.59 | $71.59 | $71.59 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $73.81 | $66.38 | $119.37 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $148.57 | $120.01 | $216.61 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $8.30 | $5.18 | $12.61 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $32.92 | $23.40 | $50.64 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 3 open-market sales ($4.1M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cohade Pierre E | Director | Open-market sell | 3,300 | $487,707 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | VP & Pres, GP & Solutions | Open-market sell | 20,917 | $3.2M |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | VP & Pres, GP & Solutions | Open-market sell | 2,500 | $384,475 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vandiepenbeeck Marc | EVP and CFO | Tax withholding | 19,760 | $2.9M |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | VP & Pres, GP & Solutions | Tax withholding | 18,625 | $2.7M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344426000098/jci-20260925.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344426000087/jci-20260630.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344426000083/jci-20260729.htm |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344426000064/jci-20260603.htm |
| May 13, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344426000058/jci-20260511.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 55,776,006 | $8.1B |
| Viking Global | 2026-06-30 | 4,202,694 | $614.1M |
| Christopher Davis | 2026-06-30 | 141,422 | $20.7M |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 7,350 | $1.1M |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company designs, manufactures, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and digital solutions. It also provides energy solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven building solutions. It sells its products and services to commercial, residential security, institutional, industrial, data center, marine, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorpo…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/jci (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.