--- title: Illinois Tool Works (ITW) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/itw ticker: ITW as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Industrials industry: Industrial - Machinery --- # Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Illinois Tool Works (ITW) closed at $272.28 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 64% vs its model value of $165.77 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $272.28 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $165.77 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 64% vs model | | Range of that model | $107.80 – $333.97 | | Market value | $77.5B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 26.0 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 19.1% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.7B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.41% | | Beta | 0.97 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.63% | | Business classification | Dividend Payer (Revenue declining (~-0% recent), Moderate margins (19% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 2.8x)) | ## On the stock lists | List | Place | Figure | Page | | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | | Dividend growth streaks | #29 | 38 years | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/dividend-growth-streaks | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 2.41% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $6.55 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 65.9% | | Raised | 38 years in a row | | Growth over 5 years | 7.1% a year | | Latest payment | $1.72, ex-date Sep 30, 2026, paid Oct 9, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Sep 29, 2021 | $4.64 | | To Sep 29, 2022 | $4.97 | | To Sep 28, 2023 | $5.33 | | To Sep 30, 2024 | $5.70 | | To Sep 30, 2025 | $6.11 | | Trailing twelve months (to Sep 30, 2026) | $6.55 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $165.77 | $107.80 | $333.97 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $171.86 | $115.59 | $331.96 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $262.14 | $192.53 | $343.77 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $246.58 | $175.57 | $340.26 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $299.45 | $254.75 | $378.78 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $269.80 | $250.76 | $285.91 | | PEG | sanity check | $94.64 | $94.64 | $94.64 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $284.92 | $261.89 | $326.02 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $225.56 | $194.88 | $333.16 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $82.77 | $66.39 | $106.03 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $111.91 | $78.88 | $175.30 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 5 open-market sales ($12.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Aug 19, 2026 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 41,431 | $7.8M | | Aug 19, 2026 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | Director | Open-market sell | 22,471 | $6.4M | | Aug 19, 2026 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | Director | Open-market sell | 8,142 | $2.3M | | Aug 19, 2026 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | Director | Open-market sell | 8,928 | $2.6M | | Aug 19, 2026 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | Director | Open-market sell | 1,890 | $546,569.1 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Aug 13, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49826/000119312526349149/d23818d8k.htm | | Aug 12, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49826/000119312526346824/d171544d424b5.htm | | Aug 11, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49826/000119312526343495/d171544d424b5.htm | | Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49826/000004982626000049/itw-20260630.htm | | Jul 28, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49826/000004982626000047/itw-20260728.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 327,500 | $88.6M | | Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 44,644 | $12.1M | | Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 1,534 | $414,901 | 3 tracked managers in all. ## About Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of a wide array of industrial goods and specialized equipment. The company operates through seven distinct divisions: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM division supplies plastic and metal components, various fastening solutions, and integrated assemblies for automobiles, light-duty trucks, and other industrial applications. Its Food Equipment segment delivers commercial kitchen appliances for washing, refrigeration, cooking, and food processing, alongside comprehensive kitchen exhaust, ventilation, and pollution control systems, and offers related maintenance and repair services. The Test & Measurement and Electronics unit manufactures and sells machinery, expendable… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/itw (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.