---
title: Howmet Aerospace (HWM) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hwm
ticker: HWM
as_of: 2026-10-18
sector: Industrials
industry: Aerospace & Defense
---
# Howmet Aerospace (HWM)

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) closed at $220.90 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 147% vs its model value of $89.51 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $220.90 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $89.51 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 147% vs model |
| Range of that model | $59.71 – $176.22 |
| Market value | $88.1B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 59.5 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 18.3% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.4B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.23% |
| Beta | 1.20 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.63% |
| Business classification | Profitable Growth (Moderate growth (~11% recent), Moderate margins (18% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 0.23% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $0.50 |
| Coverage | — |
| Raised | 3 years in a row |
| Growth over 4 years | 58.1% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.14, ex-date Aug 7, 2026, paid Aug 25, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 4, 2022 | $0.08 |
| To Aug 3, 2023 | $0.16 |
| To Aug 9, 2024 | $0.23 |
| To Aug 8, 2025 | $0.40 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 7, 2026) | $0.50 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 18, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $89.51 | $59.71 | $176.22 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $104.44 | $70.95 | $200.59 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $157.59 | $118.78 | $203.03 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $165.56 | $119.48 | $226.22 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $127.86 | $107.37 | $198.90 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $251.88 | $199.39 | $284.40 |
| PEG | sanity check | $110.57 | $110.57 | $110.57 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $111.42 | $62.34 | $121.03 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $43.35 | $9.51 | $65.94 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $3.11 | $1.93 | $4.74 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $11.65 | $8.06 | $17.33 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 2, 2026 | CANTIE JOSEPH S | Director | Grant / award | 156 | $36,078.1 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | CANTIE JOSEPH S | Director | Grant / award | 134 | $36,234.9 |
| May 21, 2026 | Smith Gunner | Director | Grant / award | 731 | $0 |
| May 21, 2026 | SCHMIDT ULRICH | Director | Grant / award | 731 | $0 |
| May 21, 2026 | Miller Jody | Director | Grant / award | 731 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000110465926091610/tm2622325d1_8k.htm |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000025/hwm-20260630.htm |
| May 28, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000110465926067628/tm2615526-1_s3asr.htm |
| May 28, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000110465926067497/hwm-20260528.htm |
| May 26, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000110465926066305/tm2615511d1_8k.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Polen Capital | 2026-06-30 | 457,124 | $122.9M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 27,799 | $7.5M |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

Howmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and originally established in 1888 as Arconic Inc., is a global leader in providing sophisticated engineered solutions. The company caters to the aerospace and transportation sectors across a wide international footprint, including key markets such as the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, and China. Its business operations are structured into four main segments: Engine Products: This division manufactures critical components like airfoils and seamless rolled rings, primarily utilized in aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines, alongside various rotating and structural parts. Fastening Systems: This segment specializes in producing aerospace-grade fastening systems, as well as fasteners for commercial transportation, general industrial applications, and other uses…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hwm (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.