--- title: Hershey (HSY) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hsy ticker: HSY as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Consumer Defensive industry: Food Confectioners --- # Hershey (HSY) Hershey (HSY) closed at $170.83 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 22% vs its model value of $139.87 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $170.83 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $139.87 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 22% vs model | | Range of that model | $72.68 – $319.12 | | Market value | $34.3B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | — | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 7.6% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.8B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 3.35% | | Beta | 0.09 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.29% | | Business classification | Dividend Payer (Low/slowing growth (~2% recent), Moderate margins (8% net margin), Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (5.3%)) | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 3.35% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $5.73 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 59.5% | | Raised | — | | Growth over 5 years | 11.6% a year | | Latest payment | $1.452, ex-date Aug 14, 2026, paid Sep 15, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Aug 19, 2021 | $3.31 | | To Aug 18, 2022 | $3.74 | | To Aug 17, 2023 | $4.30 | | To Aug 16, 2024 | $5.30 | | To Aug 15, 2025 | $5.48 | | Trailing twelve months (to Aug 14, 2026) | $5.73 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $139.87 | $72.68 | $319.12 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $144.41 | $78.34 | $328.63 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $127.06 | $82.79 | $179.39 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $132.46 | $85.67 | $195.33 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $150.37 | $146.42 | $161.02 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $175.30 | $128.36 | $200.18 | | PEG | sanity check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $144.54 | $132.07 | $177.53 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $76.31 | $67.41 | $130.62 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $107.52 | $82.54 | $148.13 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $188.60 | $116.32 | $397.07 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 32 open-market sales ($13.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Oct 14, 2026 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | 10% Owner | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 80 | $13,201.9 | | Oct 14, 2026 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | 10% Owner | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 4,649 | $763,721.9 | | Oct 14, 2026 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | 10% Owner | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 2,476 | $405,237.5 | | Oct 14, 2026 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | 10% Owner | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 2,783 | $452,254.5 | | Oct 14, 2026 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | 10% Owner | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 12 | $1,943.4 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sep 2, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026060131/hsy-20260902.htm | | Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026050900/hsy-20260628.htm | | Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026050769/hsy-20260730.htm | | Jun 9, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026041894/hsy-20260603.htm | | May 28, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026038847/hsy-20260528.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 75,000 | $13.2M | | Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 61,044 | $10.7M | | Hillman Capital | 2026-06-30 | 10,608 | $1.9M | | Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 8,635 | $1.5M | 5 tracked managers in all. ## About The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items. Its market reach extends across the United States and globally. The enterprise strategically divides its operations into three main business segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and an International division. Its extensive product catalog features a wide array of offerings. This includes various chocolate and non-chocolate candies, as well as refreshing chewing gums and mints. Beyond traditional treats, Hershey also supplies pantry essentials such as baking ingredients, dessert toppings, a range of beverages, and sundae syrups. Furthermore, their snack collection encompasses diverse items like spreads, meat snacks, various bars and snack bites, popcorn, and protein bars. The company markets i… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hsy (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.