---
title: Hilton Worldwide (HLT) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hlt
ticker: HLT
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Travel Lodging
---
# Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) closed at $345.09 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 177% vs its model value of $124.73 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $345.09 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $124.73 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 177% vs model |
| Range of that model | $69.37 – $301.99 |
| Market value | $77.7B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 56.4 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 12.1% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.0B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.17% |
| Beta | 1.10 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.71% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~8% recent), Decelerated from ~23% 5y CAGR, Moderate margins (12% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 5.0x)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Near 52-week highs | #42 | −1.5% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-highs |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 0.17% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $0.60 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 7.1% |
| Raised | — |
| Growth over 4 years | 0.0% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.15, ex-date Aug 21, 2026, paid Sep 30, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 25, 2022 | $0.60 |
| To Aug 24, 2023 | $0.60 |
| To Aug 23, 2024 | $0.60 |
| To Aug 29, 2025 | $0.60 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 21, 2026) | $0.60 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $124.73 | $69.37 | $301.99 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $142.78 | $84.04 | $327.90 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $156.16 | $99.42 | $222.93 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $169.87 | $107.72 | $252.57 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $147.95 | $125.10 | $177.03 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $362.36 | $303.81 | $424.67 |
| PEG | sanity check | $191.46 | $191.46 | $191.46 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $130.63 | $121.52 | $203.28 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $120.18 | $71.25 | $159.52 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $25.56 | $14.73 | $40.89 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $11.49 | $8.06 | $18.18 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 3 open-market sales ($2.4M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 30, 2026 | STEENLAND DOUGLAS M | Director | Grant / award | 9.256 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | Grant / award | 8.78 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | MAYER MARISSA A | Director | Grant / award | 0.842 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Mabus Raymond E | Director | Grant / award | 5.628 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Healey Melanie | Director | Grant / award | 6.374 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000043/hlt-20260630.htm |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000042/hlt-20260728.htm |
| May 18, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000037/hlt-20260514.htm |
| May 11, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000119312526217102/d144789d8k.htm |
| May 5, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000119312526205180/d29790d8k.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 85,299 | $28.2M |
| AltaRock | 2026-06-30 | 15,202 | $5.0M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 3,248 | $1.1M |

3 tracked managers in all.

## About

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spar…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hlt (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.