--- title: HCA Healthcare (HCA) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hca ticker: HCA as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Healthcare industry: Medical - Care Facilities --- # HCA Healthcare (HCA) HCA Healthcare (HCA) closed at $458.84 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 29% vs its model value of $645.25 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $458.84 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $645.25 | | Price vs model | undervalued by 29% vs model | | Range of that model | $344.31 – $1,955.40 | | Market value | $99.3B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 16.2 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 9.0% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $7.7B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.67% | | Beta | 1.11 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.78% | | Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~8% recent), Moderate margins (9% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 5.0x), Strong FCF yield (7.7%)) | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 0.67% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $3.06 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 8.8% | | Raised | 7 years in a row | | Growth over 5 years | 10.4% a year | | Latest payment | $0.78, ex-date Sep 16, 2026, paid Sep 30, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Sep 15, 2021 | $1.87 | | To Sep 15, 2022 | $2.16 | | To Sep 14, 2023 | $2.36 | | To Sep 16, 2024 | $2.58 | | To Sep 16, 2025 | $2.82 | | Trailing twelve months (to Sep 16, 2026) | $3.06 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $645.25 | $344.31 | $1,955.40 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $703.52 | $394.40 | $2,029.97 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $452.84 | $180.73 | $775.94 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $532.94 | $263.53 | $900.31 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $622.35 | $260.54 | $892.49 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $435.14 | $378.49 | $503.31 | | PEG | sanity check | $303.53 | $303.53 | $303.53 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $317.11 | $188.80 | $1,462.25 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $26.69 | $0.00 | $168.07 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $231.95 | $163.78 | $332.69 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $74.61 | $52.08 | $109.18 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Aug 26, 2026 | McAlevey Michael R | EVP & Chief Legal & Admin Off. | Other | 7,769 | $3.3M | | May 7, 2026 | Marks Mike A | EVP and CFO | Bona fide gift | 3,336 | $0 | | May 7, 2026 | Marks Mike A | EVP and CFO | Bona fide gift | 3,336 | $0 | | Apr 28, 2026 | Frist William R | Director, 10% Owner | Grant / award | 809 | $0 | | Apr 28, 2026 | FRIST THOMAS F III | Director, 10% Owner | Grant / award | 1,041 | $0 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/860730/000119312526323731/d315311d8k.htm | | Jul 28, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/860730/000119312526321077/hca-20260630.htm | | Jul 24, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/860730/000119312526315151/hca-20260724.htm | | Jul 14, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/860730/000119312526302539/hca-20260714.htm | | Jun 18, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/860730/000119312526275086/d163825d8k.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | First Eagle | 2026-06-30 | 3,295,565 | $1.3B | | Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 203,204 | $79.2M | | Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 154,097 | $60.1M | | Richard Pzena | 2026-06-30 | 96,598 | $37.7M | 6 tracked managers in all. ## About HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. The organization manages a network of general and acute care hospitals that provide a full spectrum of medical and surgical care, encompassing inpatient services, intensive care, cardiac treatment, diagnostic procedures, and emergency services. These hospitals additionally offer a broad range of outpatient care, such as ambulatory surgery, laboratory testing, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. Beyond its hospital infrastructure, HCA Healthcare operates numerous specialized outpatient facilities. These include standalone ambulatory surgery centers, dedicated emergency care facilities, urgent care clinics, walk-in clinics, advanced diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation an… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/hca (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. 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