---
title: Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ferg
ticker: FERG
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Industrial - Distribution
---
# Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)

Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) closed at $231.61 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 37% vs its model value of $169.10 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $231.61 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $169.10 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 37% vs model |
| Range of that model | $112.29 – $335.55 |
| Market value | $44.8B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 24.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 7.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.6B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.54% |
| Beta | 1.12 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.09% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~2% recent), Moderate margins (6% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.54% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $3.56 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 30.5% |
| Raised | 2 years in a row |
| Growth over 4 years | -15.4% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.89, ex-date Aug 21, 2026, paid Oct 7, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Oct 27, 2022 | $6.94 |
| To Oct 5, 2023 | $3.00 |
| To Sep 27, 2024 | $3.16 |
| To Sep 26, 2025 | $3.32 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 21, 2026) | $3.56 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $169.10 | $112.29 | $335.55 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $181.15 | $123.57 | $346.95 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $263.35 | $191.40 | $347.81 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $257.27 | $182.00 | $356.91 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $321.12 | $253.24 | $402.31 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $229.37 | $179.57 | $252.38 |
| PEG | sanity check | $147.84 | $147.84 | $147.84 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $309.76 | $234.67 | $381.14 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $531.01 | $325.11 | $784.28 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $75.19 | $62.06 | $93.51 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $79.98 | $55.94 | $123.49 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 11 open-market sales ($1.2M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Winckler Richard | Chief Accounting Officer | Tax withholding | 70 | $15,605.8 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Winckler Richard | Chief Accounting Officer | Tax withholding | 44 | $9,805.8 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Thees William T. Jr | Chief Operating Officer | Grant / award (10b5-1 plan) | 1 | $0 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Thees William T. Jr | Chief Operating Officer | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 217 | $47,876.7 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Thees William T. Jr | Chief Operating Officer | Tax withholding (10b5-1 plan) | 290 | $64,652.6 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2011641/000114036126033163/ef20080115_8k.htm |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2011641/000155278126000433/e26338_ferg-8k.htm |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2011641/000201164126000040/ferg-20260630.htm |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2011641/000201164126000038/ferg-20260810.htm |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2011641/000201164126000035/ferg-20260713.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Henry Ellenbogen | 2026-06-30 | 2,979,735 | $707.2M |
| Klarman | 2026-06-30 | 1,450,594 | $344.3M |
| Nelson Peltz | 2026-06-30 | 1,086,357 | $257.8M |
| John Armitage | 2026-06-30 | 1,006,024 | $238.8M |

12 tracked managers in all.

## About

Ferguson plc operates as a major supplier of plumbing, heating, and related industrial products throughout the United States and Canada. The company serves a diverse client base, providing essential solutions for residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial projects. Its extensive product range encompasses core plumbing and heating supplies, such as pipes, valves, fittings, water heaters, and a variety of kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances. Beyond these essentials, Ferguson also provides heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC/R) equipment, as well as fire sprinkler systems and associated components. The company's offerings further extend to specialized water management products like water meters, irrigation and drainage systems, geosynthetics, and stormwater control solutions. Industrial customers can access a broad selection of flanges…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ferg (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.