--- title: Expedia Group (EXPE) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/expe ticker: EXPE as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Consumer Cyclical industry: Travel Services --- # Expedia Group (EXPE) Expedia Group (EXPE) closed at $288.95 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 78% vs its model value of $162.40 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $288.95 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $162.40 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 78% vs model | | Range of that model | $111.17 – $306.83 | | Market value | $33.1B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 29.5 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 8.8% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $3.1B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.64% | | Beta | 1.36 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.28% | | Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~7% recent), Decelerated from ~23% 5y CAGR, Moderate margins (9% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 4.8x), Strong FCF yield (9.4%)) | ## On the stock lists | List | Place | Figure | Page | | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | | Highest free cash flow yield | #39 | 9.4% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-free-cash-flow-yield | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 0.64% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $1.84 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 6.4% | | Raised | — | | Growth over 1 years | 19.5% a year | | Latest payment | $0.48, ex-date Aug 27, 2026, paid Sep 17, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Aug 28, 2025 | $1.54 | | Trailing twelve months (to Aug 27, 2026) | $1.84 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $162.40 | $111.17 | $306.83 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $178.58 | $124.70 | $328.08 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $298.00 | $205.43 | $407.02 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $286.00 | $193.13 | $410.20 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $465.43 | $285.27 | $567.07 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $413.29 | $358.85 | $647.99 | | PEG | sanity check | $525.49 | $525.49 | $525.49 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $420.09 | $244.45 | $633.24 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $652.62 | $481.07 | $828.65 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $18.33 | $14.99 | $22.95 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $32.16 | $23.04 | $48.81 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 2 open-market sales ($1.2M); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Oct 15, 2026 | Dzielak Robert J | Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y | Tax withholding | 920 | $252,714.8 | | Oct 15, 2026 | Dzielak Robert J | Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y | Option/RSU exercise | 2,304 | $0 | | Oct 15, 2026 | Dzielak Robert J | Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y | Option/RSU exercise | 2,304 | $0 | | Oct 1, 2026 | Menendez-Cambo Patricia | Director | Grant / award | 65.087 | $0 | | Oct 1, 2026 | Von Furstenberg Alexander | Director | Grant / award | 2.64 | $0 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000053/expe-20260630.htm | | Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000051/expe-20260805.htm | | Jun 23, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000042/expe-20260617.htm | | May 8, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000035/expe-20260331.htm | | May 7, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000031/expe-20260507.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Samantha McLemore | 2026-06-30 | 167,814 | $42.9M | | Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 31,596 | $8.1M | | Richard Pzena | 2026-06-30 | 1,060 | $271,233 | 3 tracked managers in all. ## About Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services. Com… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/expe (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.