---
title: Expand Energy (EXE) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/exe
ticker: EXE
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Energy
industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
---
# Expand Energy (EXE)

Expand Energy (EXE) closed at $93.41 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 40% vs its model value of $156.88 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $93.41 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $156.88 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 40% vs model |
| Range of that model | $86.34 – $408.29 |
| Market value | $21.6B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 12.3 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 15.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.46% |
| Beta | 0.32 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.73% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Moderate growth (~18% recent), Moderate margins (15% net margin), Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (8.5%)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Highest free cash flow yield | #50 | 8.5% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-free-cash-flow-yield |
| Lowest P/E | #41 | 12.3× | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/lowest-pe |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.46% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.30 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 41.6% |
| Raised | — |
| Growth over 4 years | -23.9% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.575, ex-date Aug 13, 2026, paid Sep 3, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 16, 2022 | $6.87 |
| To Aug 16, 2023 | $6.21 |
| To Aug 15, 2024 | $2.44 |
| To Aug 14, 2025 | $3.19 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 13, 2026) | $2.30 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $156.88 | $86.34 | $408.29 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $152.46 | $87.81 | $385.15 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $112.10 | $38.56 | $199.85 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $118.00 | $53.82 | $206.76 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $104.63 | $74.87 | $121.68 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $39.56 | $20.62 | $94.34 |
| PEG | sanity check | $65.35 | $65.35 | $65.35 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $129.89 | $111.77 | $141.87 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $160.03 | $120.25 | $190.72 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $60.22 | $42.81 | $112.02 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Lacy Christopher W | EVP - GENERAL COUNSEL | Tax withholding | 1,839 | $166,981.2 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Wichterich Michael | Interim President and CEO | Open-market buy | 1,000 | $88,900 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Steck Brian | Director | Grant / award | 2,746 | $265,071.4 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Konar Shameek | Director | Grant / award | 2,331 | $225,011.4 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kehr Catherine A | Director | Grant / award | 2,331 | $225,011.4 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000057/exe-20261008.htm |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000110465926114046/tm2627119d1_8k.htm |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000110465926108570/tm2625334d5_8k.htm |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000110465926108003/tm2625334d2_8k.htm |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000053/exe-20260916.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Howard Marks | 2026-06-30 | 5,237,477 | $477.6M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 447,886 | $40.8M |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

Expand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of properties to produce crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquid hydrocarbons from subterranean geological formations. The company maintains significant interests in key natural gas production areas, specifically within Pennsylvania's northern Appalachian Basin (Marcellus Shale) and northwestern Louisiana (Haynesville/Bossier Shales). As of December 31, 2023, its asset base featured a diverse collection of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas properties, including ownership stakes in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Established in 1989 and based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Cor…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/exe (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.