---
title: Erie Indemnity (ERIE) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/erie
ticker: ERIE
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Financial Services
industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
---
# Erie Indemnity (ERIE)

Erie Indemnity (ERIE) closed at $243.71 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 14% vs its model value of $283.99 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $243.71 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $283.99 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 14% vs model |
| Range of that model | $184.93 – $698.57 |
| Market value | $11.3B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | — |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 13.8% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $571.0M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.40% |
| Beta | 0.33 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.37% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Moderate growth (~12% recent), Moderate margins (14% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (5.1%)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Dividend growth streaks | #46 | 30+ years | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/dividend-growth-streaks |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.40% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $5.85 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 44.5% |
| Raised | 30+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 7.2% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.4625, ex-date Oct 5, 2026, paid Oct 20, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Oct 4, 2021 | $4.14 |
| To Oct 4, 2022 | $4.44 |
| To Oct 4, 2023 | $4.76 |
| To Oct 7, 2024 | $5.10 |
| To Oct 6, 2025 | $5.46 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Oct 5, 2026) | $5.85 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $283.99 | $184.93 | $698.57 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $312.17 | $206.77 | $747.24 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $400.28 | $326.33 | $490.35 |
| PEG | sanity check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $123.71 | $104.07 | $153.39 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $102.61 | $73.05 | $190.25 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Shine Sarah | Executive Vice President | Other | 6.641 | $1,455.4 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | DaBreo Anthony | Senior Vice President, Life | Other | 4.817 | $1,055.6 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Cook Cody | Executive Vice President | Other | 7.209 | $1,579.9 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Shine Sarah | Executive Vice President | Other | 4.107 | $1,049.6 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | DaBreo Anthony | Senior Vice President, Life | Other | 0.779 | $199.1 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026051079/erie-20260630.htm |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026051071/erie-20260728.htm |
| May 21, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026037267/erie-20260521.htm |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026026866/erie-20260331.htm |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026026857/erie-20260421.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 2,403 | $576,119 |

1 tracked managers in all.

## About

Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/erie (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.