---
title: Dollar Tree (DLTR) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/dltr
ticker: DLTR
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Defensive
industry: Discount Stores
---
# Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Dollar Tree (DLTR) closed at $124.18 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 3% vs its model value of $120.61 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $124.18 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $120.61 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 3% vs model |
| Range of that model | $77.38 – $291.65 |
| Market value | $23.3B |
| P/E (fiscal 2026) | 20.0 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2026) | 6.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $1.1B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.72 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.01% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Revenue declining (~-20% recent), Moderate margins (7% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $120.61 | $77.38 | $291.65 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $130.49 | $85.80 | $304.48 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $234.72 | $174.22 | $305.78 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $226.93 | $160.72 | $314.80 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $143.44 | $132.28 | $187.20 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $146.07 | $130.86 | $173.91 |
| PEG | sanity check | $63.23 | $63.23 | $63.23 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $175.44 | $145.33 | $211.30 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $90.19 | $85.86 | $161.54 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $15.73 | $11.94 | $21.26 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 2 open-market sales ($470,817); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | KELLY EDWARD J III | Director | Grant / award | 327.71 | $37,499.9 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Stahl Stephanie | Director | Grant / award | 393.25 | $44,999.6 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Stahl Stephanie | Director | Open-market sell | 1,185 | $155,792 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aflatooni Robert | Chief Information Officer | Open-market sell | 2,500 | $315,025 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stahl Stephanie | Director | Conversion of derivative | 1,185 | — |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 8-K | 5.03 Amendment to Articles/Bylaws; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000116/dltr-20260924.htm |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000109/dltr-20260801.htm |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000108/dltr-20260827.htm |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000101/dltr-20260806.htm |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000075/dltr-20260701.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Christopher Bloomstran | 2026-06-30 | 530,113 | $64.1M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 315,855 | $38.2M |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a subst…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/dltr (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.