---
title: Carvana (CVNA) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cvna
ticker: CVNA
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Auto - Dealerships
---
# Carvana (CVNA)

Carvana (CVNA) closed at $58.83 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 174% vs its model value of $21.46 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $58.83 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $21.46 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 174% vs model |
| Range of that model | $15.40 – $33.61 |
| Market value | $64.5B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 34.8 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 6.9% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $889.0M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 3.55 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 12.97% |
| Business classification | High Growth (High revenue growth (~37% recent), Moderate margins (7% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Near 52-week lows | #25 | +4.6% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-lows |
| Worst performing this year | #37 | −30.3% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/worst-performing-this-year |
| Insider buying | #10 | $3.1M | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/insider-buying |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $21.46 | $15.40 | $33.61 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $27.43 | $19.96 | $42.23 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $21.78 | $9.56 | $36.22 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $27.69 | $15.27 | $44.48 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $17.40 | $15.20 | $32.24 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $241.84 | $79.68 | $353.86 |
| PEG | sanity check | $17.86 | $17.86 | $17.86 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $2.39 | $1.63 | $27.35 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 2 open-market buys ($1.5M) and 17 open-market sales ($12.4M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Taira Thomas | President, Special Projects | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 5,597 | $363,805 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | KEETON RYAN S. | Chief Brand Officer | Tax withholding | 2,883 | $181,744.3 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | Tax withholding | 7,067 | $445,503.7 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | Tax withholding (10b5-1 plan) | 3,021 | $190,443.8 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 920 | $54,721.6 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000059/cvna-20260814.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000055/cvna-20260630.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000054/cvna-20260729.htm |
| May 6, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 5.03 Amendment to Articles/Bylaws; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000039/cvna-20260505.htm |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000035/cvna-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Clifford Sosin | 2026-06-30 | 22,559,570 | $1.5B |
| Viking Global | 2026-06-30 | 12,322,311 | $811.1M |
| Stephen Mandel | 2026-06-30 | 10,520,666 | $692.5M |
| Henry Ellenbogen | 2026-06-30 | 6,720,882 | $442.4M |

8 tracked managers in all.

## About

Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and reconditioning automobiles, providing an intuitive online browsing and transaction experience, offering financing solutions, and supplying complementary products. The company also manages its own specialized logistics network for distinctive delivery and pickup options, alongside providing extensive post-sale support. Furthermore, Carvana operates various vehicle auction sites. This company was established in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cvna (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.