---
title: CSX (CSX) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/csx
ticker: CSX
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Railroads
---
# CSX (CSX)

CSX (CSX) closed at $48.68 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 94% vs its model value of $25.05 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $48.68 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $25.05 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 94% vs model |
| Range of that model | $14.19 – $59.23 |
| Market value | $90.2B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 31.6 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 20.5% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.7B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.13% |
| Beta | 1.20 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.77% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Revenue declining (~-2% recent), High profitability (21% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.13% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $0.55 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 56.8% |
| Raised | 21 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 8.4% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.14, ex-date Aug 31, 2026, paid Sep 15, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 30, 2021 | $0.37 |
| To Aug 30, 2022 | $0.39 |
| To Aug 30, 2023 | $0.43 |
| To Aug 30, 2024 | $0.47 |
| To Aug 29, 2025 | $0.51 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 31, 2026) | $0.55 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $25.05 | $14.19 | $59.23 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $25.89 | $15.42 | $58.18 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $44.47 | $28.87 | $62.83 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $41.19 | $25.97 | $61.49 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $41.63 | $39.35 | $44.96 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $33.08 | $30.53 | $36.57 |
| PEG | sanity check | $29.77 | $29.77 | $29.77 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $40.85 | $39.15 | $44.23 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $44.34 | $40.51 | $51.86 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $8.43 | $5.78 | $12.18 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $10.24 | $7.24 | $15.93 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 2 open-market sales ($2.3M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | President & CEO | Grant / award | 194 | $9,028.8 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cory Michael A. | EVP & COO | Tax withholding | 12,611 | $589,942.6 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | WHISLER J STEVEN | Director | Grant / award | 771 | $37,516.9 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | President & CEO | Grant / award | 185 | $9,009.5 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | President & CEO | Grant / award | 181 | $9,019.2 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000034/csx-20261012.htm |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000032/csx-20260630.htm |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000031/csx-20260722.htm |
| May 14, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000095010326007181/dp246573_8k.htm |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000014/csx-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 2,229,965 | $106.0M |
| Harry Burn | 2026-06-30 | 1,472,441 | $70.0M |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 584,500 | $27.8M |
| Kahn Brothers | 2026-06-30 | 34,781 | $1.7M |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trailers, and specialized transport solutions such as efficient rail-to-truck transfers and the handling of bulk commodities. CSX facilitates the shipment of a diverse array of goods, encompassing industrial chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive components and finished vehicles, minerals, timber products, fertilizers, and various metals and heavy equipment. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in energy supply chains, transporting coal, coke, and iron ore to power generation facilities, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, and also manages the export of coal via deep-water port access. The company's intermodal operations l…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/csx (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.