---
title: ConocoPhillips (COP) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cop
ticker: COP
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Energy
industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
---
# ConocoPhillips (COP)

ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $146.51 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 24% vs its model value of $193.13 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $146.51 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $193.13 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 24% vs model |
| Range of that model | $106.07 – $416.46 |
| Market value | $176.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 23.1 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 13.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | — |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.29% |
| Beta | 0.13 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.40% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Low/slowing growth (~3% recent), Decelerated from ~23% 5y CAGR, Moderate margins (15% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Highest free cash flow yield | #37 | 9.5% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-free-cash-flow-yield |
| Near 52-week highs | #2 | 0.0% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-highs |
| Best performing this year | #35 | +56.5% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.29% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $3.36 |
| Coverage | — |
| Raised | 9 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 2.2% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.84, ex-date Aug 17, 2026, paid Sep 1, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Sep 28, 2022 | $3.02 |
| To Mar 28, 2023 | $2.32 |
| To Sep 27, 2023 | $2.22 |
| To Aug 12, 2024 | $2.92 |
| To Aug 18, 2025 | $3.12 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 17, 2026) | $3.36 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $193.13 | $106.07 | $416.46 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $190.75 | $109.57 | $408.20 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $91.00 | $30.16 | $173.02 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $104.31 | $52.99 | $182.98 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $120.52 | $109.91 | $176.79 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $108.52 | $97.80 | $145.42 |
| PEG | sanity check | $170.51 | $170.51 | $170.51 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $150.23 | $142.79 | $159.71 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $52.73 | $52.37 | $57.93 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $58.01 | $44.44 | $79.90 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $93.97 | $58.63 | $192.40 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 2 open-market sales ($3.3M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 15, 2026 | NIBLOCK ROBERT A | Director | Grant / award | 270 | $37,522.4 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Olds Nicholas G | Executive Vice President | Grant / award | 22,758 | $0 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | JOHNSON KIRK L. | Executive Vice President | Grant / award | 37,930 | $0 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Kinney Shannon Browning | SVP & General Counsel | Grant / award | 24,080 | $0 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | LUNDQUIST ANDREW D | Senior Vice President | Open-market sell | 9,487 | $1.3M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000110465926094062/tm2622739d1_8k.htm |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000032/cop-20260630.htm |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000030/cop-20260806.htm |
| Jun 30, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000110465926079361/tm2617494-1_s3asr.htm |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000110465926076836/tm2618585d1_8k.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 15,178,673 | $1.6B |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 9,266,284 | $963.3M |
| Christopher Davis | 2026-06-30 | 1,877,583 | $195.2M |
| Yacktman | 2026-06-30 | 1,606,025 | $167.0M |

8 tracked managers in all.

## About

ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cop (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.