---
title: Chipotle (CMG) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cmg
ticker: CMG
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Restaurants
---
# Chipotle (CMG)

Chipotle (CMG) closed at $29.88 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 35% vs its model value of $22.06 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $29.88 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $22.06 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 35% vs model |
| Range of that model | $15.40 – $41.46 |
| Market value | $37.8B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 26.2 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.4B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.96 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.11% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~10% recent), Moderate margins (13% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Near 52-week lows | #42 | +6.0% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/near-52-week-lows |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $22.06 | $15.40 | $41.46 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $25.87 | $18.25 | $47.76 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $42.08 | $31.91 | $54.00 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $43.91 | $31.87 | $59.80 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $68.30 | $19.00 | $109.42 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $66.67 | $48.57 | $75.63 |
| PEG | sanity check | $14.19 | $14.19 | $14.19 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $34.10 | $22.10 | $69.33 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $13.71 | $5.81 | $41.86 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $5.85 | $5.06 | $6.95 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 1 open-market sale ($95,631.3); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Rymer Adam T | Chief Financial Officer | Tax withholding | 3,253 | $103,933.3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sami Sabir | Director | Grant / award | 4,747 | $159,072 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rymer Adam T | Chief Financial Officer | Tax withholding | 9,276 | $327,350 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eskenazi Ilene | Chief Legal and HR Officer | Tax withholding | 19,701 | $695,248.3 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Garner Curtis E | Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off | Tax withholding | 27,582 | $973,368.8 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000088/cmg-20260914.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000069/cmg-20260804.htm |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000066/cmg-20260630.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000063/cmg-20260729.htm |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000058/cmg-20260707.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 73,870 | $2.5M |

1 tracked managers in all.

## About

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cmg (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.