--- title: CME Group (CME) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cme ticker: CME as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Financial Services industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges --- # CME Group (CME) CME Group (CME) closed at $293.87 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 18% vs its model value of $248.80 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $293.87 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $248.80 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 18% vs model | | Range of that model | $158.00 – $678.01 | | Market value | $105.7B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 26.3 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 62.0% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $4.2B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 3.85% | | Beta | 0.27 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.10% | | Business classification | Dividend Payer (Low/slowing growth (~8% recent), High profitability (62% net margin), Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings) | ## On the stock lists | List | Place | Figure | Page | | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | | Insider buying | #45 | $78,626 | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/insider-buying | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 3.85% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $11.30 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 93.8% | | Raised | 15 years in a row | | Growth over 5 years | 12.9% a year | | Latest payment | $1.30, ex-date Sep 9, 2026, paid Sep 25, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Jun 9, 2022 | $6.15 | | To Mar 9, 2023 | $7.60 | | To Dec 27, 2023 | $8.55 | | To Dec 9, 2024 | $4.60 | | To Sep 9, 2025 | $9.55 | | Trailing twelve months (to Sep 9, 2026) | $11.30 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $248.80 | $158.00 | $678.01 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $268.51 | $174.28 | $707.52 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $226.43 | $164.76 | $299.16 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $248.74 | $179.65 | $340.93 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $288.02 | $240.02 | $307.97 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $308.13 | $284.17 | $330.90 | | PEG | sanity check | $150.81 | $150.81 | $150.81 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $262.02 | $213.35 | $322.62 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $174.81 | $152.56 | $192.16 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $115.18 | $95.57 | $145.29 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $108.48 | $69.80 | $206.83 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 1 open-market buy ($78,625.7) and 0 open-market sales ($0); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Sep 25, 2026 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | Director | Open-market buy | 292.55 | $78,625.7 | | Aug 18, 2026 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | Director | Other | 2,553.779 | $0 | | Aug 18, 2026 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | Director | Other | 2,553.779 | $0 | | Sep 15, 2026 | Winkler Julie | Sr MD Chief Commercial Officer | Grant / award | 2,864 | $787,857.8 | | Sep 15, 2026 | Winkler Julie | Sr MD Chief Commercial Officer | Tax withholding | 373 | $102,608.6 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sep 25, 2026 | 8-K | 5.03 Amendment to Articles/Bylaws | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000060/cme-20260924.htm | | Sep 9, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000119312526386091/d157844d8k.htm | | Aug 11, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000051/cme-20260811.htm | | Jul 24, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/cme-20260630.htm | | Jul 22, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000042/cme-20260722.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Klarman | 2026-06-30 | 619,000 | $136.7M | | Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 195,585 | $43.2M | | Viking Global | 2026-06-30 | 152,980 | $33.8M | | William Von Mueffling | 2026-06-30 | 63,835 | $14.1M | 8 tracked managers in all. ## About CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad spectrum of underlying assets, such as interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, alongside fixed-income products. The company additionally furnishes essential clearinghouse services, which entail the verification, settlement, and guarantee of futures, options, and cleared swap agreements traded across its venues. It also offers services for transaction processing and risk mitigation. Furthermore, the organization provides diverse market data services, encompassing both real-time and historical data feeds. Its wide-ranging client base consists of professional traders, financial institutions, bot… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cme (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.