---
title: CF Industries (CF) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cf
ticker: CF
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Basic Materials
industry: Agricultural Inputs
---
# CF Industries (CF)

CF Industries (CF) closed at $120.85 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 47% vs its model value of $229.19 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $120.85 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $229.19 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 47% vs model |
| Range of that model | $143.51 – $645.49 |
| Market value | $18.3B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 13.5 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 20.5% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.74% |
| Beta | 0.40 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.04% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Low/slowing growth (~3% recent), High profitability (25% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (9.9%)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Highest free cash flow yield | #35 | 9.9% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-free-cash-flow-yield |
| Best performing this year | #36 | +56.3% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.74% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.10 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 18.1% |
| Raised | — |
| Growth over 5 years | 11.8% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.60, ex-date Aug 14, 2026, paid Aug 31, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 13, 2021 | $1.20 |
| To Aug 12, 2022 | $1.40 |
| To Aug 14, 2023 | $1.60 |
| To Aug 15, 2024 | $1.90 |
| To Aug 15, 2025 | $2.00 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 14, 2026) | $2.10 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $229.19 | $143.51 | $645.49 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $193.11 | $128.19 | $500.77 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $135.64 | $79.35 | $202.52 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $135.15 | $91.58 | $194.28 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $351.64 | $277.13 | $1,044.46 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $142.05 | $115.82 | $180.90 |
| PEG | sanity check | $119.79 | $119.79 | $119.79 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $135.60 | $122.39 | $139.82 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $36.08 | $7.99 | $37.39 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $98.96 | $80.25 | $127.79 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $36.20 | $26.05 | $65.40 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| May 26, 2026 | Scribner Andrew | EVP and CFO | Grant / award | 6,464 | $0 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | DeHaas Deborah L | Director | Grant / award | 1,390 | $0 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Wagler Theresa E | Director | Grant / award | 1,390 | $0 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | EAVES JOHN W | Director | Grant / award | 1,390 | $0 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Ellerbusch Susan A | Director | Grant / award | 1,390 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000110465926105054/tm2624720d1_8k.htm |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000017/cf-20260805.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000110465926091275/tm2622111d1_8k.htm |
| May 7, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000013/cf-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 249,708 | $27.0M |

1 tracked managers in all.

## About

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users.…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/cf (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.