---
title: Casey's (CASY) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/casy
ticker: CASY
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Specialty Retail
---
# Casey's (CASY)

Casey's (CASY) closed at $689.22 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 51% vs its model value of $457.39 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $689.22 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $457.39 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 51% vs model |
| Range of that model | $273.10 – $1,279.04 |
| Market value | $25.5B |
| P/E (fiscal 2026) | 36.0 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2026) | 4.1% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $721.6M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.34% |
| Beta | 0.58 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.73% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~9% recent), Thin margins (4.1% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 0.34% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.36 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | 11.5% |
| Raised | 26 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 12.0% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.65, ex-date Jul 31, 2026, paid Aug 14, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Jul 30, 2021 | $1.34 |
| To Jul 29, 2022 | $1.43 |
| To Jul 31, 2023 | $1.57 |
| To Aug 1, 2024 | $1.79 |
| To Aug 1, 2025 | $2.07 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Jul 31, 2026) | $2.36 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $457.39 | $273.10 | $1,279.04 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $442.60 | $275.46 | $1,173.88 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $470.10 | $289.75 | $683.53 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $453.54 | $287.70 | $677.42 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $336.02 | $317.18 | $358.88 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $531.35 | $467.27 | $691.01 |
| PEG | sanity check | $206.67 | $206.67 | $206.67 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $386.90 | $328.86 | $487.16 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $138.09 | $49.75 | $144.74 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $60.21 | $39.42 | $109.33 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Heiden Cara Kay | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 326 | $0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Heiden Cara Kay | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 326 | $0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | SUTULA STANLEY J III | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 51 | $0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | SUTULA STANLEY J III | Director | Grant / award | 220 | $0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | SUTULA STANLEY J III | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 51 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000085/casy-20260731.htm |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000084/casy-20260902.htm |
| Jul 22, 2026 | ARS | Annual report to shareholders | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000114036126029283/ny20072699x3_ars.pdf |
| Jul 22, 2026 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy materials | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000114036126029281/ny20072699x2_defa14a.htm |
| Jul 22, 2026 | DEF 14A | Proxy statement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000114036126029280/ny20072699x1_def14a.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 91,125 | $72.4M |
| Torray | 2026-06-30 | 16,784 | $13.3M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 12,192 | $9.7M |
| First Eagle | 2026-06-30 | 1,200 | $953,748 |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

Casey's General Stores, Inc. engages in the provision of management and operation of convenience stores and gasoline stations. It provides self-service gasoline, a wide selection of grocery items, and an array of freshly prepared food items. The firm offers food, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items. The company was founded by Donald F. Lamberti in 1968 and is headquartered in Ankeny, IA.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/casy (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.