---
title: Carrier Global (CARR) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/carr
ticker: CARR
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Industrial - Machinery
---
# Carrier Global (CARR)

Carrier Global (CARR) closed at $55.00 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 51% vs its model value of $36.45 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $55.00 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $36.45 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 51% vs model |
| Range of that model | $21.60 – $82.06 |
| Market value | $45.3B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 32.0 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 6.8% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.1B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.72% |
| Beta | 1.29 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.87% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Revenue declining (~-1% recent), Moderate margins (7% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.72% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $0.95 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 36.4% |
| Raised | 5+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 16.5% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.24, ex-date Jul 21, 2026, paid Aug 10, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Jun 23, 2021 | $0.44 |
| To Jun 22, 2022 | $0.57 |
| To Jun 22, 2023 | $0.71 |
| To Jun 21, 2024 | $0.76 |
| To Jul 21, 2025 | $0.87 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Jul 21, 2026) | $0.95 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $36.45 | $21.60 | $82.06 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $40.14 | $24.92 | $86.10 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $68.84 | $49.41 | $91.62 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $66.79 | $45.83 | $94.46 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $61.54 | $60.32 | $76.47 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $51.36 | $26.63 | $82.17 |
| PEG | sanity check | $65.51 | $65.51 | $65.51 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $92.57 | $66.37 | $121.64 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $116.97 | $97.11 | $166.09 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $17.86 | $13.55 | $23.92 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $16.20 | $11.50 | $22.99 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Yildiz Beril | VP, Controller & CAO | Option/RSU exercise | 1,065 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Yildiz Beril | VP, Controller & CAO | Tax withholding | 260 | $14,357.2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Yildiz Beril | VP, Controller & CAO | Option/RSU exercise | 1,065 | $0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Barua Neil | Director | Grant / award | 2,831.011 | $195,000 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Dryden Edward C. | President, CST | Option/RSU exercise | 6,894 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000032/carr-20260630.htm |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000030/carr-20260728.htm |
| Jul 28, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000095014226002184/eh260811579_s3asr.htm |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000095014226002161/eh260811584_8k.htm |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000026/carr-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 27,475,603 | $2.0B |
| Sarah Ketterer | 2026-06-30 | 2,178,506 | $159.8M |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 235,000 | $17.2M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 2,785 | $204,280 |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions f…

---

Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/carr (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.