---
title: A. O. Smith (AOS) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/aos
ticker: AOS
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Industrial - Machinery
---
# A. O. Smith (AOS)

A. O. Smith (AOS) closed at $59.22 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 19% vs its model value of $49.64 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $59.22 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $49.64 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 19% vs model |
| Range of that model | $36.28 – $82.90 |
| Market value | $8.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 15.4 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 14.3% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $546.0M |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.43% |
| Beta | 1.11 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.48% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Revenue declining (~-0% recent), Moderate margins (14% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (6.8%)) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.43% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $1.44 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 35.8% |
| Raised | 14 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 6.7% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.36, ex-date Jul 31, 2026, paid Aug 17, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Jul 29, 2021 | $1.04 |
| To Jul 28, 2022 | $1.12 |
| To Jul 28, 2023 | $1.20 |
| To Jul 31, 2024 | $1.28 |
| To Jul 31, 2025 | $1.36 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Jul 31, 2026) | $1.44 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $49.64 | $36.28 | $82.90 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $51.56 | $38.52 | $83.37 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $78.27 | $58.00 | $102.07 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $73.12 | $53.47 | $99.13 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $79.98 | $72.11 | $90.49 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $77.14 | $69.84 | $101.19 |
| PEG | sanity check | $30.00 | $30.00 | $30.00 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $84.31 | $73.78 | $91.49 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $75.61 | $69.62 | $89.60 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $30.32 | $26.20 | $36.00 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $24.84 | $17.72 | $38.04 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Anderson Carrie L | EVP & CFO | Grant / award | 32,060 | $2.0M |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Saak Aaron W | Director | Grant / award | 2,296 | $150,020.6 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Saak Aaron W | Director | Grant / award | 2,262 | $150,015.8 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | SMITH MARK D | Director | Grant / award | 2,262 | $150,015.8 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | MARTIN LOIS M | Director | Grant / award | 2,262 | $150,015.8 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91142/000009114226000098/aos-20260630.htm |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91142/000009114226000096/aos-20260730.htm |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91142/000009114226000091/aos-20260622.htm |
| May 19, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91142/000009114226000086/aos-20260519.htm |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91142/000009114226000084/aos-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 36,505 | $2.3M |

1 tracked managers in all.

## About

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a global manufacturer and marketer specializing in a comprehensive array of water heating and treatment solutions. Its operations span North America, China, Europe, and India, organized into two primary geographic segments: North America and Rest of World. The company's product portfolio is extensive, featuring residential and commercial water heaters (gas, heat pump, and electric models), boilers, storage tanks, and various water treatment systems. These products cater to a wide range of applications, including homes, apartments, and condominiums, as well as commercial entities such as restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, small businesses, hospitals, and schools. Specific offerings include diverse water treatment products like point-of-entry water softeners, well water purification systems, whole-home filtration units, portable f…

---

Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/aos (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.