---
title: Amazon (AMZN) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/amzn
ticker: AMZN
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Specialty Retail
---
# Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon (AMZN) closed at $250.00 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 182% vs its model value of $88.78 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $250.00 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $88.78 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 182% vs model |
| Range of that model | $60.82 – $162.43 |
| Market value | $2.7T |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 34.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 10.8% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $7.7B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.46 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 10.15% |
| Business classification | Profitable Growth (Moderate growth (~12% recent), Moderate margins (11% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Largest companies | #5 | $2.7T | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/largest-companies |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $88.78 | $60.82 | $162.43 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $118.30 | $81.38 | $214.76 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $433.10 | $334.06 | $548.74 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $427.00 | $306.73 | $584.96 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $320.37 | $195.95 | $478.77 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $408.02 | $352.77 | $600.05 |
| PEG | sanity check | $295.73 | $295.73 | $295.73 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $327.34 | $191.18 | $436.80 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $254.26 | $130.51 | $370.49 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $6.64 | $5.00 | $8.85 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 18 open-market sales ($15.1M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 1,000 | $251,500 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | SMITH BRAD D | Director | Grant / award | 4,086 | $0 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Mandia Kevin R. | Director | Grant / award | 4,086 | $0 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 1,000 | $254,770 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | BEZOS JEFFREY P | Executive Chair | Bona fide gift | 230,637 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000110465926107526/tm2624614d5_8k.htm |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000110465926107122/tm2624614-3_424b5.htm |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000110465926106115/tm2624614-1_424b5.htm |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000036/amzn-20260908.htm |
| Aug 14, 2026 | S-4/A | Merger registration (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000110465926096195/tm2617924-3_s4a.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 16,708,513 | $4.0B |
| Chase Coleman | 2026-06-30 | 9,683,558 | $2.3B |
| Ackman | 2026-06-30 | 8,563,857 | $2.0B |
| AltaRock | 2026-06-30 | 5,729,972 | $1.4B |

37 tracked managers in all.

## About

Amazon.com, Inc. operates a vast global retail enterprise, distributing consumer goods and subscription services through both its extensive online platforms and a network of physical stores across North America and internationally. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company's product offerings encompass both merchandise and content procured for direct resale, alongside items sold by third-party merchants on its platform. Furthermore, the company develops and markets its own range of electronic devices, such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets and TVs, Ring, Blink, eero, and Echo products. It also invests in the development and production of original media content. Amazon provides various programs designed to enable independent sellers to offer their products, and empowers authors, musicians, filmmakers…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/amzn (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.