---
title: Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ajg
ticker: AJG
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Financial Services
industry: Insurance - Brokers
---
# Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) closed at $254.88 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 42% vs its model value of $180.11 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $254.88 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $180.11 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 42% vs model |
| Range of that model | $91.22 – $483.14 |
| Market value | $65.3B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 44.4 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 10.7% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.08% |
| Beta | 0.55 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.34% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Moderate growth (~18% recent), Moderate margins (11% net margin), Pays dividends, Moderately volatile earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.08% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.75 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 37.4% |
| Raised | 15 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 7.8% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.70, ex-date Sep 8, 2026, paid Sep 18, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Sep 2, 2021 | $1.89 |
| To Sep 1, 2022 | $2.01 |
| To Aug 31, 2023 | $2.16 |
| To Sep 6, 2024 | $2.35 |
| To Sep 5, 2025 | $2.55 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Sep 8, 2026) | $2.75 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $180.11 | $91.22 | $483.14 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $207.69 | $110.35 | $544.88 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $183.60 | $121.95 | $256.22 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $210.34 | $136.36 | $308.92 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $166.08 | $158.15 | $199.05 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $407.70 | $366.35 | $472.72 |
| PEG | sanity check | $328.17 | $328.17 | $328.17 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $202.87 | $158.14 | $209.74 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $168.49 | $108.14 | $214.22 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $33.88 | $20.61 | $53.96 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $73.29 | $47.68 | $134.98 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 4 open-market sales ($7.6M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 15, 2026 | CARY RICHARD C | Controller, CAO | Open-market sell | 1,000 | $252,858.3 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Gallagher Patrick Murphy | Chief Operating Officer | Bona fide gift | 49,988 | $0 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | CEO | Bona fide gift | 49,988 | $0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Hudson Scott R | Vice President | Option/RSU exercise | 12,000 | $1.0M |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Hudson Scott R | Vice President | Open-market sell | 12,000 | $3.2M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354190/000035419026000197/ajg-20260824.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354190/000162828026053489/ajg-20260630.htm |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354190/000162828026051070/ajg-20260730.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354190/000035419026000184/ajg-20260722.htm |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354190/000035419026000171/ajg-20260617.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 9,363,634 | $2.1B |
| First Pacific Advisors | 2026-06-30 | 1,336,290 | $306.8M |
| Glenn Greenberg | 2026-06-30 | 1,285,022 | $295.0M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 311,539 | $71.5M |

6 tracked managers in all.

## About

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., alongside its various subsidiaries, operates globally, providing a wide array of services that encompass insurance brokerage, expert consulting, and outsourced claims settlement and administration. Its geographic reach extends across the United States, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, India, and the United Kingdom. The company's business model is divided into two primary segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage division manages both retail and wholesale insurance operations. It also supports other brokers, including independent ones, in securing specialized or hard-to-place insurance coverage. This segment functions as a wholesale broker, managing general agent (MGA), and managing general underwriter (MGU) to distribute tailored insurance products to underwriting firms. Key activities within this segment include marketing, u…

---

Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ajg (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.