---
title: Autodesk (ADSK) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/adsk
ticker: ADSK
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Technology
industry: Software - Application
---
# Autodesk (ADSK)

Autodesk (ADSK) closed at $239.90 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 70% vs its model value of $141.39 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $239.90 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $141.39 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 70% vs model |
| Range of that model | $98.64 – $260.10 |
| Market value | $50.1B |
| P/E (fiscal 2026) | 45.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2026) | 15.6% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $2.4B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.33 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.85% |
| Business classification | Profitable Growth (Moderate growth (~14% recent), Moderate margins (16% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $141.39 | $98.64 | $260.10 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $160.26 | $113.70 | $287.43 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $311.77 | $252.95 | $380.13 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $308.05 | $236.04 | $401.34 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $313.01 | $231.59 | $443.31 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $303.62 | $272.02 | $360.08 |
| PEG | sanity check | $314.83 | $314.83 | $314.83 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $314.76 | $222.11 | $427.68 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $362.89 | $304.81 | $492.80 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $16.84 | $14.32 | $20.27 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Jun 23, 2026 | CAHILL JOHN T | Director | Open-market buy | 2,000 | $378,400 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Smith Stacy J | Director | Grant / award | 1,087 | $0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Smith Stacy J | Director | Grant / award | 1,553 | $0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Simons Anna C | Director | Grant / award | 466 | $0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Simons Anna C | Director | Grant / award | 1,553 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000119312526387877/d103766d8k.htm |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000119312526386591/d110760d424b5.htm |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000076939726000061/adsk-20260731.htm |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000076939726000059/adsk-20260827.htm |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000121390026084276/ea0300009-8k_autodesk.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 44,165 | $8.6M |
| Richard Pzena | 2026-06-30 | 1,506 | $292,797 |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele. Their diverse product line includes AutoCAD Civil 3D, a comprehensive solution for civil engineering tasks such as land development, transportation infrastructure, and environmental projects. For construction project management, they offer BIM 360, a cloud-based platform. Core design and drafting needs are met by AutoCAD and its specialized counterpart, AutoCAD LT. The company also provides CAM software, essential for computer numeric control (CNC) machining, inspection, and manufacturing modeling, alongside Fusion 360, an integrated platform for 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering. Autodesk further provides curated Industry Collections, offering comprehensive toolsets for professionals in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC), product design and…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/adsk (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.