---
title: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/adm
ticker: ADM
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Defensive
industry: Agricultural Farm Products
---
# Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) closed at $82.61 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 68% vs its model value of $49.08 (from its peers' median P/E).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $82.61 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from its peers' median P/E) | $49.08 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 68% vs model |
| Range of that model | $42.71 – $62.05 |
| Market value | $39.8B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 37.0 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 1.3% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $4.2B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.51% |
| Beta | 0.63 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.86% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-1% recent), Thin margins (4.3% net margin), Pays dividends, Strong FCF yield (10.6%)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Highest free cash flow yield | #26 | 10.6% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-free-cash-flow-yield |
| Dividend growth streaks | #14 | 42+ years | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/dividend-growth-streaks |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.51% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.07 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 23.5% |
| Raised | 42+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 7.1% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.52, ex-date Aug 19, 2026, paid Sep 9, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 17, 2021 | $1.47 |
| To Aug 16, 2022 | $1.57 |
| To Aug 15, 2023 | $1.75 |
| To Aug 21, 2024 | $1.95 |
| To Aug 20, 2025 | $2.03 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 19, 2026) | $2.07 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $49.08 | $42.71 | $62.05 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $56.23 | $37.67 | $73.57 |
| PEG | sanity check | $137.19 | $137.19 | $137.19 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $47.16 | $31.81 | $49.28 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $55.60 | $20.32 | $61.62 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $10.81 | $6.63 | $16.96 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $41.05 | $27.84 | $69.36 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | WESTBROOK KELVIN R | Director | Grant / award | 721.591 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | Director | Grant / award | 721.591 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Sandler Debra A. | Director | Grant / award | 800.025 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | MOORE PATRICK J | Director | Grant / award | 721.591 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | McMurray Michael C. | Director | Grant / award | 721.591 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000119312526345800/d176752d8k.htm |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 8-K | 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000119312526342579/d102470d8k.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000119312526332921/d130956ds3asr.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000042/adm-20260630.htm |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000040/adm-20260804.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 14,182,325 | $1.1B |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 1,505,800 | $115.0M |
| Soros | 2026-06-30 | 46,071 | $3.5M |

3 tracked managers in all.

## About

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and dist…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/adm (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.