--- title: "170 Dividend Declines in Five Years" description: "A five-factor safety model flags 170 of the 1,899 scored U.S.-listed dividend payers, and the flags cluster around debt and weakening returns on capital." date: 2026-11-08 updated: 2026-11-08 tags: [dividends, data-analysis] author: "Sam" lang: en canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/170-dividend-declines-in-five-years --- *A five-factor safety model flags 170 of 1,899 scored U.S.-listed dividend payers. The common thread is not yield; it is debt and returns on capital.* Of the 1,899 U.S.-listed dividend payers with a current score in Snapstock's Dividend Safety Index, 170 carry a five-year dividend-decline flag. That is about 9% of the scored universe, and it is the starting point for this study, not a list of 170 confirmed cuts. The count is the output of the index's DIVIDEND_DECLINED_5Y red-flag check, one signal inside a broader 0-10 model. The model weighs five categories: growth; profitability, including returns on capital; debt, including leverage and interest coverage; dividends and buybacks, including payout and cash coverage; and capital efficiency. Scores of 8.0 or higher are High Quality; 6.0 to 7.99 Above Average; 4.0 to 5.99 Average; 2.0 to 3.99 Below Average; below 2.0 Weak. The 170's scores are wider than the flag suggests: two High Quality, 39 Above Average, 95 Average, 32 Below Average, and two Weak. In other words, 41 score 6.0 or higher, while 34 score below 4.0. A five-year decline flag does not equal a low score; the flag is one input, the score is the blend. The group is concentrated in Financial Services, which accounts for 56, about one in three. Basic Materials and Consumer Cyclical add 19 each, Industrials 18, Energy 14, Technology 11, Utilities and Real Estate 8 each, Consumer Defensive 7, Communication Services 6, and Healthcare 4. Most are not in a named dividend-growth category: 144 are unclassified, 13 Challengers, 10 Contenders, two Aristocrats, and one King. Nor is this a high-yield screen: the median yield is 2.61%, the mean 3.25%, and while 35 yield 5% or more and 20 yield 7% or more, more than half yield less than 3%. What the 170 share is more specific. 157 carry at least one debt-related flag, including 137 with interest coverage below 8x. 136 show a decline in returns on assets, equity, or invested capital; 108 in EPS, free cash flow per share, or revenue; 97 in payout stress (a higher-than-usual payout, paying more than earnings or free cash flow, cash burn, or a net loss); and 53 also carry the 10-year dividend-decline flag. Groups can overlap; a company is counted once within each group. That is the analytical core. The 170 are not united by a high dividend, a single sector, or a particular streak. They are united by balance-sheet strain and weakening returns on capital. That does not prove a cut is coming. It does mean the dividend is being examined alongside the business that funds it, not in isolation. The examples show why the score and the flag answer different questions. Newmont (NEM) scores 7.71, Above Average, with a 0.85% yield; its annual series fell 37.5% in 2024 and 27.3% in 2023, then was flat in 2025. Newmont's dividend is variable, so the decline reflects a lower payout rather than a fixed dividend being slashed. Even so, a high score is not a promise of a smooth payout. Celanese (CE) scores 2.23, Below Average, with a 0.26% yield; its annual series fell 95.7% in 2025. It carries 14 red flags, including five-year and 10-year dividend declines, negative returns, high net debt relative to free cash flow, interest coverage below 8x, and a net loss. Baxter International (BAX) scores 1.94, Weak, with a 0.16% yield; its series fell 50.0% in 2025 and 10.3% in 2024. V.F. Corporation (VFC) scores 2.48, Below Average, with a 1.77% yield; its series fell 63.6% in 2024 and 50.7% in 2023. These are examples, not the full 170, and the annual series can include special or variable dividends. A decline flag can appear near the top of the score scale and near the bottom. The score tells you how the five factors blend; the flag tells you the dividend has moved lower over a specific window. They are complementary, not interchangeable. A separate check makes the same point from another direction. Of the 59 scored Dividend Kings, 12 score below 4/10, about one in five. The 59 average 5.57, above the 5.12 average for all 1,899 scored tickers, but the 12 average 3.26. Five examples are ADM at 2.81, SWK at 3.28, BDX at 3.57, HRL at 3.71, and GPC at 3.90. All five have 50-year streaks and are Below Average. None is in the 170, and none carries the five-year decline flag; their annual dividend histories rise. A long streak is a discipline signal, not a safety guarantee. The practical takeaway is a process, not a verdict. Read the score, then the five factors behind it. Check both payout ratios, earnings and free cash flow, and the three-to-five-year trend. Check whether the dividend is covered by the business, not just the balance sheet. A low score is a reason to review the dividend, not a recommendation to act, and a high score is not a guarantee. The full index is free and requires no login. It covers 1,910 U.S.-listed ticker pages, 1,899 with a current score, with the 0-10 score and the data behind it, including payout ratios, streak, and next ex-date where available. The complete CSV is available for independent checks: [dividend-safety.csv](https://learn.snapstock.app/data/dividend-safety.csv). The [free Dividend Safety Index list](https://learn.snapstock.app/dividend-safety-scores/?utm_source=sweetvaluelab&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=declines-study) carries the same scores. *Data note: The snapshot is dated Nov. 8, 2026. Individual scores carry their own calculation dates; the 170's score dates range from Nov. 15, 2025 to Nov. 7, 2026. The 170 count is the output of Snapstock's DIVIDEND_DECLINED_5Y red-flag check, not a hand-audited list of cuts. Payout ratios are annual figures from the latest fiscal year. Educational information only; not investment advice.* *Disclosure: Sorn Maksumic is the founder of Snapstock, which publishes the free Dividend Safety Index and sells a dividend research subscription. The index and CSV used here are free. This article is educational and is not investment advice. No buy, sell, or hold recommendation is intended. Prepared with AI assistance on behalf of Sorn Maksumic; all figures were computed from the Nov. 8, 2026 snapshot and can be checked against the linked CSV.*